Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Wet winter = no fires?

Every year, people try to predict the upcoming fire season. It's almost humorous to follow. Here's what you'll generally hear:
We've had such a dry winter that all the fuels will be bone dry. It's a tinder box out there! Expect resources to be stretched thin with all the fires we're going to have.
Or...
We've had such a wet winter that it will promote lots of fine fuel growth (i.e. cheatgrass). All this extra fuel will lead to rapidly spreading fires that get into heavier fuel. Expect resources to be stretched thin with all the fires we're going to have.
Hmmm...

Fires need three things: fuel, oxygen, and ignition. In both winter scenarios, fuel and oxygen are provided. Ignition remains the variable. It all depends on dry lightning storms and idiots starting fires in places or circumstances they shouldn't.

In Salt Lake City, we've basically had continuous snow cover at my house on the west bench since Nov. 29. It's continued until hopefully this weekend when most, if not all, the snow will be melted from my yard. Of course, another storm is predicted for Sunday, but here's to holding out hope.

I thought these maps were telling. They show snow cover (white) over the United States for November, December, and January. Watch the days click off on the bottom right of the map to give you the time context. Enjoy.

Nov: http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/nov/snow.html
Dec: http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/dec/snow.html
Jan: http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/jan/snow.html

2 comments:

Papa Doc said...

These were coo pictures pf the snow. I notice that I was in the white all winter.

Dad Clark

Papa Doc said...

Hey, this was a cool site! Now we need to see what February was like -- still all white, I think.
Mom